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Anti-Idiotarian Rottweiler » Danish PWNage !!!
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You are viewing the Archives for 2007.......If you want the current page, CLICK HERE.......

Hat Tip to Sig94 for the linky love on this little gem:

Is There An Average Global Temperature?

I’ve tossed this general idea out a few times in past threads on the topic. My essential point being the physical impossibility of collecting and analyzing enough data to infer a conclusion that’s statistically significant on global scale temperatures. I aced my thermodynamics classes in “Uncle” Rickover’s Canoe Club College and dangit if I don’t remember a lot of what I was taught. Each and every model of a thermodynamic process must be “bounded” that is, the system to be analyzed must include a finite scientific “fence” around the process for any legitimate experimentation. This analysis technique isolates out (or otherwise assumes) external influences that if ignored, yield wild variances in the examined, theorized process results. The various laws of thermodynamics have been thoroughly proven, as it’s a relatively “older” scientific body of study. A block of ice placed in a room of a given (above freezing) temperature will melt at a rate determined by the room temperature, air flow and a number of other factors. Obviously, for this to work correctly, there must be no unaccounted for external factors affecting the study, e.g. the room temperature or airflow changes. With all conditions ’static’, the universal laws of thermodynamics work every time. The science in order to function, requires a fixed set of preconditions for theoretical measure of heat-transfer. The three processes by which heat transfers are conduction, convection and radiation. The science can of course, account for changes in the processes, but they must have a known magnitude and ‘appearance’ on the scene during the examined period.

As we’ll see without surprise, the global warming crowd cuts the corners a bit in their Modeling O’ Doom™, treating the atmosphere as a homogeneous mixture.

It is already painfully clear that models of anthropogenic global warming are ridiculously inadequate, and do not meet the basic tests of experimental science, no matter how many “scientists” yell “consensus.” Now comes a serious question from a serious scientist that threatens to undermine the fundamental premise of the alarmists. [emph mine, laughing]

Not only are the warmlings yelling foul, they’ve elevated the invective to a new low. Global Warming Deniers..mheh…I’ll wear that mantle with pride. Did you ever notice that when the butt-sniffin’ brotherhood of this crowd gets cornered, out comes a nice little Nazi referent? It’s almost as if they’ve revoked Godwin’s Law.

Danish physicist Bjarne Andresen has raised the interesting point that there may be no global warming, because there is no such thing as global temperature! That is because the earth atmosphere is not a homogeneous system. It’s not a glass lab jar in your high school physics lab.

Says Andresen,

“It is impossible to talk about a single temperature for something as complicated as the climate of Earth. A temperature can be defined only for a homogeneous system. Furthermore, the climate is not governed by a single temperature. Rather, differences of temperatures drive the processes and create the storms, sea currents, thunder, etc. which make up the climate”.

Along with that real bright, warm ball thingy that has a tendency to move from east to west, pretty much daily as well. Nice job, Dr. Andresen, you just earned the title of Denier from your bat-shit, analingus loving, dishonest colleagues and yikes… the one true “Goreacle”, but every scrap of truthiness that emerges gouges their Scientific Scam of the Century™.

Andresen is a professor at The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen. His article appeared in The Journal of Non-equilibrium Thermodynamics, with coauthors Essex and McKitrick. The journal deals with energy systems that are too complex to come to equilibrium, unlike a cup of hot tea, which behaves in a highly predictable way. A lot of important physical systems, like the climate, appear to be non-equilibrium systems. They are not well understood, which is why they are a hot frontier topic in physics.

Told ya’. There are entirely too many factors that influence atmospheric heat transfer to draw ‘reasonable’ let alone conclusive evidence. It’s not a question of being able to model the factors, but a question of measuring all of the perturbations of the factors, as they are very dynamic in nature. I’ll use hurricane tracking modeling as an example. The National Hurricane Center/National Weather Service typically uses three different models to predict a hurricane track. The available data, and that is extremely important, is plugged-into the models, each yielding a slightly different track. The released forecasts are based on a rough average of the results returned by all three models. Understanding the models utilize literally millions of iterations and assumptions in operation, it’s expected that the returned predictions will vary to a certain extent. The variance they produce can be reduced by one and only one factor, more empiric data. But that is practically impossible with the available technology. If we step back, it’s seen that a hurricane, while indeed a major atmospheric event is relatively small on a global scale. Somber predictions and assessments of atmospheric changes of a given direction require a consciously prevaricating pathology.

Mathematically, there are several different “measures of central tendency,” which is what an “average” really is. When we think about “average global temperature” we are usually thinking about the arithmetic mean. But there is also a geometric mean, a mode, a median, and more complicated expressions that can be used as numerical indices for the heat content of a physical system. But as Andresen points out, which of those “averages” you use depends upon your model of the atmosphere.

The professor is being generous here, but essentially ’splaining that any number of Bull-Shit factors can be introduced into the atmospheric modeling equations. It’s obvious that our lying academic ass-hats of the “established” science of anthropogenic warming can quite easily rig or chose the produced ‘averages’ to suit their agenda.

The current evidence cited for “global warming” could even mean a decrease in the physical heat density of the atmosphere, if a different mathematical average is used. And because the climate is driven by differences in heat between different regions — leading to the daily weather, as well as hurricanes and snow storms — the right predictor for global climate may not be an average heat density at all, but rather the regional differences in heat content. Weather systems flow from high to low pressure regions, which are in turn dependent upon complex heat exchange mechanisms. [Emph Mine]

In short, any spewed “average global temperatures” are rising, is a wild-assed guess, at best. There are entirely too many factors, which just aren’t measurable to produce a high-level of confidence in the produced result. It’s physically impossible to empirically measure hundreds of thousands variables, each of which produce errors in the results. Moreover, the models behave irrespective of the measured inputs, operating on an assumed (and necessarily arbitrary) algorithm to determine an “average temperature”. Especially for the crowd focusing on yet more “conclusive” proof that we’re all gonna’ die. I’m sure they have a special “algoreithm” to ensure the desired results are produced.

All the standard arguments for global warming rely upon conventional “equilibrium” models of the atmosphere, all of which may be false.

As Andersen suggests, global warming hype may be more politics than science. [emph mine, of course]

Buuuhhhwaaahaaaa- PWN3D.

37 Responses to “Danish PWNage !!!”
  1. Old Dog Comment by Old Dog

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    Man, I have not read a gonad stomping like that since a Prof. landed on a Term Paper of mine that was written on one particularly drunken weekend.
    :devil_tb:

  2. Old Dog Comment by Old Dog

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    BTW, First.

  3. Unregistered Comment by jkaiseresquire

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    This kind of basic thought is lost on leftists who have a goal (control of our actions) and that goal MUST be reached no matter the cost. Facts, truth, and logic won’t stand in the way of their thirst for power.

    J. Kaiser
    http://totaltransformation.wordpress.com

  4. Redeard Comment by Redeard

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    In all of the arguments I’ve seen supporting global warming, none of them address external stimuli or previous major climate changes. What caused the ice age and what ended it? If man had no affect, what did? Since the temperature changes involved were several factors more than any changes we may be seeing now, what caused them? And how quickly did those changes happen?
    Unless all of the factors that caused previous climate changes are no longer affecting us, there is no way they will convince me that man can have any affect on climate change to the degree they claim.
    Remember, one major volcanic eruption produces more “greenhouse gasses” than man has produced throughout history.

  5. bhedrick Comment by bhedrick

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    The other question I’ve asked is this: What is the ideal global temperature? Are we too hot, considering that it has been much warmer within modern human history?

  6. Unregistered Comment by LC + IB Gutshot

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    If man had no affect, what did?

    I see this whole thing as a similar logic to the anti-tobacco lobby.

    Q. What’s the goal of pushing global wormening (or anti-smoking laws)?
    A. To tax, specifically to tax industries that traditionally support the GOP.

    They couldn’t care less about the environment. All they want is a talking point. So asking a question like the one above is great, but liberals have a way of asking the answerless question, leaving the general public with the impression that their faux-alarm is worthy of acceptance. “What if [insert whatever you want to tax] really causes [whatever threat to mankind develops] to happen? Do you really want to take the chance???”

    And it doesn’t matter how many of (or how good) the counterarguments are. With their stooges in the Screamedia, the only one that ever gets airplay is the one they want.

    The only recourse is Misha’s Medicine™: Rope. Tree. Mediots. Some assembly required.

  7. Unregistered Comment by Nealest

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    “The Journal of Non-equilibrium Thermodynamics”! Owww, my head hurts. I don’t actually have to read it, do I?! :lol1_wp:

    Yes to Misha, yes to Redeard (is that supposed to be Redbeard?), and yes to LC + IB Gutshot (sorry to hear about that, guy!). Given the history of this planet, it would be insane to expect climate not to be changing at all. So it has to be getting colder or warmer over time (until that trend reverses). The Libs tried to get us with a global coldening scare in the ’70s, and now they’re trying global warmening. Even if we could tell what direction the climate is heading over a short period, there’s no way to tell what, if any, effect humans are having, or what effect the Goreacle’s proposed “solutions” would have on it. The one thing we can be sure of is that Kyoto and other Goreacle-approved solutions would have is to bankrupt our economy and hasten the onset of even bigger government run by commies like Algore. And that IS the point of it all.; scare the voters into approving higher taxes and expanded government power over all of us, especially those who would produce real value in our economy.

  8. philmon Comment by philmon

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    Where they really screw up is claiming that unverified models that can’t even produce today’s climate with yesterday’s data have any sort of validity to their predictions of tomorrow’s climate.

    And then trying to base social policy on it.

    Because it’s excactly backward. They’ve got their social policies they’d like to implement, and are using AGW as a tool to achieve it.

    You’ve got your anti-industrialists who want to see industry go away. You’ve got your vegans who want people to stop eating animals (however, it’s ok for other animals to eat animals — digressing). You’ve got your anti-Americans wanting to cripple the American economy as much as possible, or to use the issue to get elected to government and turn America into its own utopic vision (or try). You’ve got your industrial European countries that are so saddled with fuel taxes they’d love to “level the playing field” by forcing to the US to adopt such a system. You’ve got Russia with a bunch of “free” carbon credits (they got for shutting down old inefficient soviet factories & power plants in the early 1990’s) to sell to countries who haven’t or can’t reduce their Kyoto comittments — which means Russia gets money, and not one ounce less carbon gets emitted into the atmosphere. But the buying countries “buy” indulgences, and therefore moral righteousness.

    It is excactly about politics, and the ends justify the means.

    Countries that have signed up for Kyoto are the ones with something to gain from it (that something having nothing to do with the environment). The ones that haven’t are the U.S. and the developing world. That’s right. The developing world sides with the U.S. We are not alone at all, despite how the UN and the press portrays it.

  9. LC HJ Caveman82952 Comment by LC HJ Caveman82952

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    The global warming crowd…seems their true motives are coming out, one leak at a time. And that is what scares them the most. This pathetic attempt of employing euphamisms when the truth will not suffice is getting old. I wonder if stone age lefties would compalin about the pollution from their campfires, or the warming. I belive they also fear anyone seriously attempting to measure humanity’s effect on the atmosphere, for then you discover our changes pale in comparison to one volcano….and God knows the sun. It is nothing but a socialist/communist grab in my book. Yet these countries remain the greatest polluters. Yes, they throw links about with abandon……same shit, different pile.

  10. Red Five Comment by Red Five

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    It all boils down to this:
    The pointy heads can’t accurately predict what the weather will be like next week in my little corner of East Tennessee; how the hell do they expect to accurately predict the weather for the next 100 years for the whole planet?!? :wallbash_tb: :furious_tb: :guns_tb:

  11. LC SkyeChild Comment by LC SkyeChild

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    IIRC, (and I may not…you know how these things go), there was an article recently about world leaders getting together to “cap” global temperatures. I guess that means they were going to decide how cold and how hot the earth gets (can anyone say Camelot?).

    Man’s hubris astounds me. What happens to the apple crop of the Pac NW when leaders “decide” that the temps can’t get, say, below 40? What happens to the cooler weather crops of lettuce, beans, broccoli, etc.

    There are some illnesses, etc., that we in the north don’t get that our southern counterparts do because the cold weather KILLS certain germs. Are our “leaders” prepared for the influx if sicknesses that will result with warmer winters?

    Are the “leaders” prepared to deal with the consequences of not enough snow in regions where spring rains are often lacking? (I guess they don’t realize that sometimes we need snow to offset the lack of spring rains).

    I laugh at their arrogance. God must be in hysterics when the “leaders” start on about how they are going to control the weather. I can just see Him now…locking and loading…inviting them to “bring it on!”

  12. Unregistered Comment by Roger Glass

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    Ooch. Ouch.

    Jackboot, for a hobnailed fascist, you are one mighty smart and articulate bugger.

    I stop in here too infrequently. I wonder what other gems I’ve missed?

  13. LC SkyeChild Comment by LC SkyeChild

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    I need to qualify my last post (that’s what happens when ya don’t preview). When I said there are illnesses that we don’t get, that really should say that we are certain ailments we are less inclined to get…

    Okay, you southerners can put your guns and ammo away now. *grin*

  14. Blackiswhite, Imperial Agent Provocateur Comment by Blackiswhite, Imperial Agent Provocateur

    Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method emotions::filter_text() should not be called statically in /home/misha/public_html/2007/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 59

    Global denouncements for the negative thoughtspeak in contravention to the teachings of the Church of Global Warming and of the pronouncements of the Supreme Goreon are being printed up (with soy ink on recycled paper) for all of us as we read this story. I think I’ll throw mine in a household incinerator. VOCs be damned!

  15. Nixcell Comment by Nixcell

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    Nice!

    I would love to be a fly on the wall in the Goracle’s office. But in all probability, he will simply throw out the “denier” label again. Always easier to label than to debate.

  16. Unregistered Comment by Nealest

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    I laugh at their arrogance. God must be in hysterics when the “leaders” start on about how they are going to control the weather. I laugh at their arrogance.

    “And if you wanna hear God laugh, tell him your plans.” From the song “Help Somebody” by Van Zant

  17. ScottG Comment by ScottG

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    Good for our Nordic Brethren, but:

    A Dane gives, and Norwegians take away.

    Merry FatMas: Norway first to recognize new Fatah - Hamas unity government.

    Posted by Atlas yesterday

  18. NCLivingBrit Comment by NCLivingBrit

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    I laugh at their arrogance. God must be in hysterics when the “leaders” start on about how they are going to control the weather. I laugh at their arrogance.

    King Knut is on line one, he wants his hubris back.

    Considering the iffy evidence, outright lies and pogrom-style academic silencing of anyone who isn’t a shill for “climate change”, why aren’t we making some prosecutions for obtaining money under false pretences?

  19. LC JackBoot IC/A-OBR Comment by LC JackBoot IC/A-OBR

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    #14-BisW

    Global denouncements for the negative thoughtspeak in contravention to the teachings

    Oooooo…Goody, Goody, it’s only Monday and I’ve got my first denouncement for the week.

    (with soy ink on recycled paper) for all of us as we read this story

    Ummmm, since I wrote it, do I get mine replete with a prepaid carbon-offset as well?

    #12-Roger Glass-

    Jackboot, for a hobnailed fascist, you are one mighty smart and articulate bugger.

    Thank you sir. A most welcome compliment, now I must get back to the subjugation of humanity as well, and wait for the Imperial Troll-Bait™ to work.

  20. sig94 Comment by sig94

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    Many Rottis, and all moonbats, may not realize that our much maligned but nonetheless beloved Jackboot was also a nuklure submaridinean saylure. He was qualified to operate the onboard nuclear power plants in a sub and in order to do so had the engineering concepts of thermodynamnics rammed, crammed and slammed into his narrow little noggin (please correct me if I’m wrong JB… just don’t use the french tickler on the barbed wire. Ya knows how I hate to giggle while I’m screaming).

  21. Unregistered Comment by Nealest

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    Drudge: GORE FACES HILL GRILLING ON ‘WARMING’; . . . Proposed questions for Gore, which are circulating behind-the-scenes, . . . could leave Gore scrambling for answers!

    Well, I’ll believe it when I see it, but it sure would be nice if Al got Gored at the hearings!

  22. LC Wil Comment by LC Wil

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    JB, That was marvelous.

    And it’s gonna leave a mark. Ouch!

  23. Emperor Misha I Comment by Emperor Misha I

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    Jackboot: You ROCK, my friend.

    Sizzling take-down.

  24. juandos Comment by juandos

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    Hmmm, I’m betting the SUPREME GORON doesn’t have the balls to take the challenge…

    Al Gore Challenged to International TV Debate on Global Warming

    The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley presents his compliments to Vice-President Albert Gore and by these presents challenges the said former Vice-President to a head-to-head, internationally-televised debate upon the question “That our effect on climate is not dangerous”, to be held in the Library of the Oxford University Museum of Natural History at a date of the Vice-President’s choosing.

    Jackboot, for a hobnailed fascist, you are one mighty smart and articulate bugger

    Ha! ha! Yeah! Good point made Mr. Glass…

  25. BC, Imperial Torturer Comment by BC, Imperial Torturer

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    juandos, I’m sure the Supreme Moron™ will conveniently be unavailable for about the next 15 years to debate the great Viscount Monckton of Brenchley.

    It’ll have something to do with him spending the next several decades looking for a pair of recycled plastic testicles to tape to his groin.

    An honest debate (Read: One w/o “feeeewings“, but loaded with actual, ya’ know, “facts“.) from the LefTardian Lickers of Lenin’s Left Nut™? Ain’t gonna happen.

  26. LC Guido Cabrone Comment by LC Guido Cabrone

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    nuklure submaridinean saylure. He was qualified to operate the onboard nuclear power plants in a sub

    Well now, that would explain the slight “glow-in-the-dark” effect, now wouldn’t it? :smoke_tb:

  27. LC JackBoot IC/A-OBR Comment by LC JackBoot IC/A-OBR

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    Guids-

    Well now, that would explain the slight “glow-in-the-dark” effect, now wouldn’t it?

    Yup, I don’t need no steenkin’ spelunking light (figger it out) and the chicks really dig it. Ooohhh honey, I see you have 150 watts of “happy to see me”….

    :thumbup_tb:

  28. juandos Comment by juandos

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    It’ll have something to do with him spending the next several decades looking for a pair of recycled plastic testicles to tape to his groin“… :lol_tb:

    Oh damn! BC! Yet another well delivered bitch slapping on the GORON…

  29. Unregistered Comment by JackLacton

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    I wonder how the Climate Fascists will be remembered in history when all of this global warming nonsense is debunked and long forgotten. Will they be shameful? Remorseful? Probably not, they’ll have found the next way of sucking at the public teat.

    As it happens, I’ve got a piece on global warming and the Scientific Method, which is timely.

    And if you missed it there was a pro vs anti AGW debate held the other day, the result of which is pretty funny.

  30. Unregistered Comment by Spatial Ed

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    I have only one question for the Global Worming group. In 14 parts.
    1. In all the vast amount of research put into the search for justification of taxing and controlling the unwashed masses (whoever they are) have the researchers accounted for the different database available now as opposed to twenty years ago and (a)are all the same weather monitoring stations being used (b) have their own microclimates been affected by urban growth, etc)?
    2. (a)Have they accounted for the fact that the ice caps never melt completely, ever, unless it’s hot enough to melt lead at the equator, and (b)if they did, ice that’s already in the water isn’t going to add to the oceans’ volume, since it’s still just water in a different state and (c) if a lot of ice melted, how much is sea ice and how much fresh ice, and (d) how much more water would be held on the land and (e)in the (ostensibly warmer) atmosphere?
    3. (a)How much more rain would the desert regions receive and (b)how much more arable land would be available in the Siberian steppe and Northern Canada?
    4. (a) If there are a whole bunch more clouds, how much more heat and light will be reflected into space and (b)if not, how much more heat will be radiated into space?
    5. If it actually does become warmer and wetter, (a) how much more solar energy would be trapped and stored in the vegetation explosion, and (b) how much carbon dioxide would said plants absorb as compared to today? :huh_tb:

  31. LC Mrs. M-ITT™ Comment by LC Mrs. M-ITT™

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    Ooohhh honey, I see you have 150 watts of “happy to see me”….

    Better watch out Bro. You are now officially a “Denier”. Keep it up and the Goricle will turn your Winky Dink into a spotlight to shine on his statue that he’s having made to stand in front of the Capital Building once he manages to take over the world. :lol_wp: :lol_wp:

  32. LC JackBoot IC/A-OBR Comment by LC JackBoot IC/A-OBR

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    into a spotlight to shine on his statue

    Can I pick the spot to shine it on?

    :smoke_tb:

  33. L.C. Rowane Comment by L.C. Rowane

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    “It’ll have something to do with him spending the next several decades looking for a pair of recycled plastic testicles to tape to his groin

    http://www.realtechnews.com/posts/1918

    Suppose these will do?

  34. philmon Comment by philmon

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    As an official Denier™ myself, it’s good to see that I’m not alone. On the other hand, when I read this my skeptic’s brain balked a bit and I want to caution my fellow Deniers™ against presenting it in too simple terms. We need to understand why this is true and what it means. After all, we do have skeptics reputations to uphold.

    I do it here in this post.

  35. Unregistered Comment by The Almighty Mattski

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    Fellow Rotties:

    Kudos to His Imperialness for bringing this to us! Not that the majority of the readers here didn’t already know or suspect this information, but hey; more fuel for the fire, don’tchaknow.

    That said, if you want to read some more GREAT slap-down, screw-global-warming-idiocy, vastly intelligent, calling-out-of-the-imbeciles, check out Orson Scott Card’s site (yes all you science fiction readers, THAT Orson Scott Card). It ranks as one of the most intelligent exposés out there:

    http://ornery.org/essays/warwatch/2007-03-04-1.html

    Semper Fi,
    Mattski

  36. Unregistered Comment by curious

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    I have a lot of experience modeling tough problems. The purpose of the modeling is to find a solution, that is how I get paid.

    When I first heard this term Global Average Temperature, I thought WHAT??? How in the world could you determine a Global Average Temperature?

    Here are the problems I have that such a thing as a Global Average Temperature can exist:
    1. Temperature fluctuates greatly during the year. For some places I have lived this fluctuation has been as much as 150 degrees F, 100 degrees F during the summer, -50 F during the winter. So, what date are you talking about? Are you taking an average of all the days of the year? If you do that you now have a new problem:
    2. Temperatures fluctuate greatly during the day. In some desert areas temperature can be 80 F during the day and 0 F at night. So, what time of day are you using? Are you taking a daily average to go with your annual average? If you do that you now have a new problem:
    3. Temperatures vary a great deal by location. It can be 120F in the shade in Puerto Rico and -65 in the shade in Antarctica. So, where are you going to take the temperature? I don’t buy the ice core samples as representing Global Temperature because that only tells us the temperature for the area where the ice cores were sampled. So, where are you going to take the temperature? Are you going to take it everywhere and use an average? Are you going to assume that because the temperature increased at the arctic circle that it also increased at the equator? (An assumption I think is not easily proven).

    I think you get my point. Global Average Temperature doesn’t exist.

  37. Unregistered Comment by timmareng

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    Great post, JB!

    I aced my thermodynamics classes in “Uncle” Rickover’s Canoe Club College and dangit if I don’t remember a lot of what I was taught.

    What class were you in at Uncle Hymie’s Finishing School?

    I was in 8005 section 10 at Orlando, plus S5G prototype (The Big Ketchup Bottle); sailed on CVNs 69 and 70 as a nuc electrician.

    http://www.ikebites.com

    http://groups.yahoo.com/group/CritThink/

    Tim