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Things are definitely taking a turn for the worse in Georgia now, as the Russian initial claims of merely moving in to defend their personnel and civilians in the breakaway province of South Ossetia in response to a massive Georgian artillery barrage of the capital, Tskhinvali, claiming the lives of about 1,400 civilians and a dozen Russian peacekeepers begin to look like a pretense of taking over Georgia entirely.
For frequent updates and just about the best two-sided coverage of the conflict I’ve been able to find, I highly commend LC & IB Major C, a recent addition to the blogroll suggested by LC Crunchie, whose impeccable taste once again snuffed out an excellent site.
It is one thing to move in to protect a peace-keeping mission by clearing the territory of attacking forces, it is quite another to start moving into the sovereign territory of the nation attacking. At that point, it looks more like an invasion than an attempt to restore the status quo, and our response must therefore change to reflect the new situation on the ground.
The Russians have now ceased the Georgian town and airbase of Gori, well within Georgia proper, and they have opened a second front to the west in Abkhazia, where they’ve also pushed into Georgia proper. In both cases they claim that it’s to stop Georgia’s air force from attacking their forces which, from a military point of view and ignoring everything else, seeing as how reports of Georgian Su-25s attacking coming in, seems reasonable enough. In itself. But the excuses are beginning to wear a bit thin, to say the very least.
Meanwhile, the propaganda war continues on both sides, with Russian officials throwing barely veiled accusations around at the most recent meeting at the U.N.
According to Churkin’s data, 127 military advisors from the U.S. Department of Defense are now in Georgia, not taking into consideration all other advisors. He said Russia hopes rumours that the U.S. gave a green light to Georgia to embark on a military adventure are not true.
Careful there, comrade. You may be putting it in diplomatic terms, but we all know that amounts to an accusation, so you’d better back your words up with some actual evidence or STFU. Couple this with some unconfirmed claims on Russian news sites about bodies of “black skinned soldiers, possibly Americans” and all I can say is that they’re beginning to tread where they should hesitate to go.
I still support South Ossetian independence, as a matter of fact I find it ironic that some in the west insist on preserving arbitrary lines on a map drawn by Josef fucking Stalin with the express purpose of keeping a potentially troublesome ethnic minority split up, but the Russian response, no matter how neutrally you try to look at it, is beginning to look a whole lot less like a “peace-keeping” mission and more and more like an invasion. Russian troops are now within 35 miles of Tblisi.
Defending the mission in South Ossetia I really, honestly can’t see a problem with, but the Georgians have now been kicked out of there as well as out of Abkhazia, which had nothing to do with the original Georgian attack, so if Russia wants to continue to operate under the guise of “preserving the status quo”, now would be a fine time to accept Georgia’s offer of a ceasefire and sit down to talk.
Otherwise, you can call it what you will, it’ll still look like an attempt to gobble up a former satellite republic with use of force, and THAT is unacceptable under any circumstances. If a precedent is set allowing that to happen, the good peoples of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will have good reasons to worry.
“We told you so! Putin can’t be trusted!”
I never trusted him to begin with. I never have. However, the facts on the ground initially supported Russia’s claims, and facts is what I relate to, not what might become facts in the future. The situation on the ground has changed, and our position on the issue must change to reflect that.
It’s time for both sides to stop the fighting and return to the negotiating table, because otherwise the parallels to 1938 and the Sudetenland will become brutally apparent. Really, we don’t want to go there, neither us or the Russians, but if something isn’t achieved soon, we may find ourselves there anyway.
Sadly, there isn’t much we can do right now other than to keep the pressure up, on both sides. I’ve read comments around the Intertubes that we should just “bomb the shit out of the Russians and show ‘em who’s boss”, but that’s just retarded. Really, now? We should go to war with the Russian Federation over South Ossetia? Open a third front against a huge nation with an enormous arsenal of very nasty weapons and almost unlimited manpower resources? I understand the frustration at this point. We have a good ally who has fought long and hard by our side helping us out, so naturally we have an obligation to help them out now. I just don’t think that starting WW IV is the best move at this moment, and that’s another British Understatement.
We also can’t rely on the Useless Nitwits to do anything worthwhile. They never once have in their miserable, oxygen-wasting existence, so putting our hopes in them now is, at best, wishful thinking. This is not to say that negotiations at the U.N. should stop altogether, because negotiations need to be going on somewhere, just don’t expect any unicorns to come flying out the arses of that “august” body.
Everybody needs to calm down. WE need to quit our hysterical babble about “the Russians starting it” while completely ignoring what when on in Tskhinvali on Friday, and THEY need to be told that there’s a limit to how far you can go and still look like you’re merely “restoring peace” and that we aren’t blind. We see what’s going on and what it’s beginning to look like. Sadly, both sides are now at the phase where they’re too busy flinging poo at each other to stop and consider the big picture. In such an environment, any hope of a peaceful solution hasn’t a chance.
Heaven help us.
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No matter who started it, the Russians have, by far, overreacted.
I want to say let these superior acting Europeans take care of this European affair, but you know, and I know, we’re going to be pulled into it anyway. (And already have, from what I’m reading)
Shit.
Lady H.
August 11th, 2008 at 2:13 PMUsing
We dont know a whole lot about what went on in South Ossetia on Friday. The whole thing reminds me of the Romanian “revolution” in 89. There were reports about genocide… thousands of victims murdered by “securitate”….
When the smoke cleared it turned out it was all lies. It was just a transfer of power from one a..hole to another. And 15000 victims quickly turned into 15.
The whole thing looks staged to me. It seems rather odd that Russia can mobilize, invade and defeat a sovereign nation in just two days. USA or any other nation would need at least a month to prepare an operation like that.
…And in case you wonder - I am sure a nation like Russia would need at least three months to do the same….
August 11th, 2008 at 2:16 PMUsing
WWIV will start sooner or later, with or without our assistance. The world is not all about the U.S. of A., as Europe is about to learn.
Great information posted here: http://search.live.c.....ssetia.jpg
Of Georgia’s 5 nuclear reactors, three are now in areas controlled by the Russians. The fourth is in Adjaria, and the fifth is near, you guessed it, Tbilisi. Two of the four major border crossings to Russia are in South Ossetia. Major transport roads run east-west through South Ossetia. North-south roads access the east-west roads there too.
Buried in the page listed above is this little gem: “The conflict between the region of South Ossetia and Georgia is civil in nature. The fighting has taken place in Georgia between different factions of the population and not between two separate states. ”
I forgot to add, if the Russians take the Georgian capital and Adjaria, they can turn out the power everywhere in Georgia.
August 11th, 2008 at 2:21 PMUsing
And we’re pretty much powerless to directly intervene. To watch an ally be invaded and their people slaughtered under the pretenses of Russian “peacekeeping” is making my blood boil.
It looks like Georgian troops are going to give up ground to The Bear™ and try to hold a more defensible position around the capital. I hope their stand will hold and make the Russians pay dearly. Satellite imagery can help somewhat the Georgians, but when you can’t act on the intelligence… what good is that…
August 11th, 2008 at 2:22 PMUsing
Looks like the Ukraine is atleast attempting to squeeze the Russians a little. And it looks like those “separatists” are looking to separate a little more of the Georgian countryside. I wonder who might want to annex that little parcel of land… and Britain is talking about sending humanitarian aid…. bah… the Georgians need more than bandaids…..
:em12: :em12: :em12: :em12:
August 11th, 2008 at 2:27 PMUsing
Of course Lady H. It’s all our fault doncha know. It always is.
August 11th, 2008 at 2:30 PMUsing
And the Russians are already threatening them.
August 11th, 2008 at 2:39 PMUsing
The Georgian ministry said more than 50 Russian bombers were operating over Georgia last night/yesterday. Retreat 15 klicks from positions around Gori, call in the bombers/ cruise missile strikes, then fire up the heavies and roll over Gori. That appears to be what the Russians did yesterday. In the meantime they struck south from Abkhazia, reportedly taking a town I can’t even find on any Gorgian maps at all! Said to be a Georgian military base there. Will they take the port of Pot’i too and continue south, cutting off Georgia completely from the sea? If I were in charge and didn’t give a damn about world opinion, I certainly would.
August 11th, 2008 at 2:46 PMUsing
The Russian Empire was once described as “a prison of nations’ and Putin clearly wants to install himself as the next Czar.
August 11th, 2008 at 2:47 PMI do not agree that a nation like Russia needs six months to carry out a move like this. Acting within their own borders they could move the needed men & material into position pretty easily.
The ugly fact is that we can be sure that Georgia is just first on Putin’s list to be brought back into the Russian orbit.
Our thumb up our asses response to it is certainly calming to countries like Poland and the Chechs who thought the West was committed to Freedom.
Using
We have “no intention of occupying territory beyond South Ossetia and Abkhazia”, they say as they begin to occupy territory beyond South Ossetia and Abkhazia. And it gets better…
and
“We didn’t capture Gori, per se, we just happen to have our troops staying at the Holiday Inn Express while we get the tire pressure checked on our tanks. And sorry ’bout the phone line thing, all of our troops are busy using dial-up internet to look at pron, and we all know how long that can take”
Anybody get any more word from the Russian Ministry of Peace or the Ministry of Truth?
:em98:
August 11th, 2008 at 3:17 PMUsing
Ha!! Just did some “This Day In History” stuff for my 50’s show…..
:em01: :em99: :em01:
August 11th, 2008 at 3:21 PMUsing
President Bush is to speak at 5:15 pm Eastern time today… Just once in my life I’d like to hear a U.S. President say “Ya’ll know what, I tol’ that Mister Putin that he’d better stop all these shenannighans in Georgia, and he blew me off so ya’ll know what I did? With the help of Turkey who allowed us over-flight permissions, we just went over and eliminated the Russian Black Sea fleet! Care to have a few more cruise missile strikes, Mr. I-Can’t-Take-Your-Call-Right-Now Putin?”
Just once I’d like to hear a little sabre-rattling from our side of the pond with, you know, and actual saber in the scabbard poised to be drawn!
I suspect that Pres. Bush will actually announce that unfortunately, though some U.S. advisors have been killed, we are working diligently with the U.N. and EU countries for a comprehensive cease-fire agreement… Bah!
August 11th, 2008 at 3:25 PMUsing
Only if Cheney is willing to loan out his balls again. :em98:
August 11th, 2008 at 3:36 PMUsing
I would love to see Putin get his ass kicked, or at least get scared shitless. I hate that communist fucker. I do feel bad for both, Russians and Georgians, because the filthy son of a diseased whore is wasting lives on both sides for the sake of his ambitions.
August 11th, 2008 at 3:43 PMUsing
I’m still in the “stay out of it” camp.
The Euros are saying a lot of terrible things about us on the comments to the news about this war. Let them use their renown “diplomacy” and calm down the Russian bear. Show us how it’s done, Europe, since we know how well peace has always existed in your neck of the woods throughout History! :em12:
August 11th, 2008 at 3:45 PMUsing
Oh. Fuck.
August 11th, 2008 at 3:58 PMUsing
Misha, I think it’s worth noting that the Georgians claim that Thursday night they were shelled from South Ossetia, by “seperatists”, killing 10 people. That’s when their “raid” began.
I think this is worth noting because, 1. their raid made it to the South Ossetia capital, and 2. once there they were assaulted on Friday by superior Russian forces wielding heavy artillary. At that point they retreated.
The Georgians did not:
1. immediately bomb or shut down the two main roads to Russia
2. have a plan in place for dealing with a massive (and that’s the only way to term the Russian response) direct retaliation by the Russians (who up to this point have simply played an underhanded, behind-the-scenes role).
This smells more and more like a Russian setup… A concentrated, well-aimed shelling from South Ossetia, a punitive raid allowed to reach the capital, fierce resistance from Russian “peacemakers” and Russian-sponsored “seperatists”, then a massive well-staged and planned response from Russia?
The Russians are almost accusing us of helping. They’ve thrown out warning statements in the direction of Turkey and the Ukraine. Everyone keeps saying that this will result in a cease-fire soon, but what if that isn’t the Russian game plan? What if the Russians really ARE planning on throwing a war, and playing the weak, “Let’s all just talk” crowd for complete panzys?
More from this site: http://majorsperspective.blogspot.com/
“As of 1630 Eastern Time: Fox News is also reporting via Fox News Cable News Network that there are reports of Russian Troops in the Port of Poti in Georgia. The Port of Poti is one of two major ports within Georgia.” The other port is where the fourth nuclear reactor sits.
I’ve also bookmarked this site, which was featuring press releases from the Georgian Gov’t directly, as they were issued: http://georgiandaily.....;Itemid=67
It’s, I fear, significant to note that there have been no more updates to the website since yesterday. No press releases from a gov’t fighting a war on their own land can only mean one thing; they’ve bugged out. Will this be what our President announces at 5:15? That the only help we could provide was to evacuate the leaders of Georgia today in the face of the Russian invasion?
August 11th, 2008 at 4:00 PMUsing
I tried to post this once before but somehow it didn’t appear.
Misha, I think it’s worth noting that the Georgians claim that Thursday night they were shelled from South Ossetia, by “seperatists”, killing 10 people. That’s when their “raid” began.
I think this is worth noting because, 1. their raid made it to the South Ossetia capital, and 2. once there they were assaulted on Friday by superior Russian forces wielding heavy artillary. At that point they retreated.
The Georgians did not:
1. immediately bomb or shut down the two main roads to Russia
2. have a plan in place for dealing with a massive (and that’s the only way to term the Russian response) direct retaliation by the Russians (who up to this point have simply played an underhanded, behind-the-scenes role).
This smells more and more like a Russian setup… A concentrated, well-aimed shelling from South Ossetia, a punitive raid allowed to reach the capital, fierce resistance from Russian “peacemakers” and Russian-sponsored “seperatists”, then a massive well-staged and planned response from Russia?
The Russians are almost accusing us of helping. They’ve thrown out warning statements in the direction of Turkey and the Ukraine. Everyone keeps saying that this will result in a cease-fire soon, but what if that isn’t the Russian game plan? What if the Russians really ARE planning on throwing a war, and playing the weak, “Let’s all just talk” crowd for complete panzys?
More from this site: http://majorsperspective.blogspot.com/
“As of 1630 Eastern Time: Fox News is also reporting via Fox News Cable News Network that there are reports of Russian Troops in the Port of Poti in Georgia. The Port of Poti is one of two major ports within Georgia.” The other port is where the fourth nuclear reactor sits.
I’ve also bookmarked this site, which was featuring press releases from the Georgian Gov’t directly, as they were issued: http://georgiandaily.....;Itemid=67
It’s, I fear, significant to note that there have been no more updates to the website since yesterday. No press releases from a gov’t fighting a war on their own land can only mean one thing; they’ve bugged out. Will this be what our President announces at 5:15? That the only help we could provide was to evacuate the leaders of Georgia today in the face of the Russian invasion?
I’m watching the CNN coverage right now, waiting on Pres Bush to speak. No one is covering what the Pres. is saying at this moment! Grrrrrrrrrr.
August 11th, 2008 at 4:17 PMUsing
Misha, I think it’s worth noting that the Georgians claim that Thursday night they were shelled from South Ossetia, by “seperatists”, killing 10 people. That’s when their “raid” began.
I think this is worth noting because, 1. their raid made it to the South Ossetia capital, and 2. once there they were assaulted on Friday by superior Russian forces wielding heavy artillary. At that point they retreated.
The Georgians did not:
1. immediately bomb or shut down the two main roads to Russia
2. have a plan in place for dealing with a massive (and that’s the only way to term the Russian response) direct retaliation by the Russians (who up to this point have simply played an underhanded, behind-the-scenes role).
This smells more and more like a Russian setup… A concentrated, well-aimed shelling from South Ossetia, a punitive raid allowed to reach the capital, fierce resistance from Russian “peacemakers” and Russian-sponsored “seperatists”, then a massive well-staged and planned response from Russia?
The Russians are almost accusing us of helping. They’ve thrown out warning statements in the direction of Turkey and the Ukraine. Everyone keeps saying that this will result in a cease-fire soon, but what if that isn’t the Russian game plan? What if the Russians really ARE planning on throwing a war, and playing the weak, “Let’s all just talk” crowd for complete panzys?
More from this site: majorsperspective.blogspot.com
“As of 1630 Eastern Time: Fox News is also reporting via Fox News Cable News Network that there are reports of Russian Troops in the Port of Poti in Georgia. The Port of Poti is one of two major ports within Georgia.” The other port is where the fourth nuclear reactor sits.
I’ve also bookmarked this site, which was featuring press releases from the Georgian Gov’t directly, as they were issued: georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5647&Itemid=67
It’s, I fear, significant to note that there have been no more updates to the website since yesterday. No press releases from a gov’t fighting a war on their own land can only mean one thing; they’ve bugged out. Will this be what our President announces at 5:15? That the only help we could provide was to evacuate the leaders of Georgia today in the face of the Russian invasion?
Fuck, Bush just basically just waffled on national television, and CNN is reporting Russian military forces outside the Georgian capital. Crap!
August 11th, 2008 at 4:25 PMUsing
Now you’re beginning to get worried, Misha?
I had my doubts about this whole thing from the beginning, suspecting that Putin likely provoked the whole thing so as to create a pretext to annex - or reannex - all of Georgia, and it sure looks like that’s what happened. Starting with Putin arming the “seperatists” in South Ossetia, tolerating their cross-border attacks against Georgia, ignoring requests from the Georgians to help them stop the attacks…and then when the Georgians took action on their own, using that as an excuse to take Georgia completely off the board as an independent nation.
Using, let’s not forget, the same justification used to defend the Kosovars from the Serbs. Just to add a little salt to the wound.
And I’m sure it’s only a coincidence that Georgia currently has the only pipeline delivering Caucasian oil to Europe that doesn’t run through Russian territory. For the moment, anyway.
And, oh yes, by taking out Georgia, Putin’s also telling the rest of the former Soviet republics - especially those uppity Balts and Ukrainians - that if they’re not careful they’ll get it in the neck too.
Question: While the Russians were amassing and prepping their invasion force - there’s far too much firepower here for a mere quick-reaction force - where the hell were the CIA and our other intelligence agencies? Screwed up again, didn’t you boys? :em98:
So much for the Cold War being over…
August 11th, 2008 at 4:48 PMUsing
This smells like a Russian setup, which is to say something like yesterday’s crap :em72: . Now right away I will grant that Georgia made a pretty foolish decision. Someone over there too a few too many hits from the crack pipe, or something, to think provoking the Russians like this would be a good idea. As if the Olympics would really serve to distract the world… come on. Stupid.
That said, it seems obvious that Russia has designs on the region. Do you really think they care about the South Ossetians? Highly doubtful. They would have stopped by now if that were the real motivation here. They certainly didn’t have a problem cracking down on their own secessionists historically. And irregardless of the state of affairs in Georgia, did Russia really have any particular right to station “peacekeepers” in the region? As was said earlier, I have a sneaking suspicion that Russia staged the minor attack from South Ossetia to provoke a response from Georgia. It’s the kind of convoluted scheme Russia and it’s Soviet predecessor have proven to be very good at doing.
Russia needs to be stopped now, before Georgia is further damaged, though as was mentioned earlier it may be best to do so in a way which lets Russia save face and walk away with a “victory” even if it means mostly a return to the status quo. And someone please take the crack pipe away from the Georgians. I’m glad they are helping out in the war on Terror and all, but still, this was really stupid. Georgia has what, one one-hundreth of Russia’s military strength? That’s rather like Pee-wee Herman taking a pot shot at Mr. T.
I pity the fool!
August 11th, 2008 at 5:05 PMUsing
Russia acting like Russia another nation gone poof…..Piss on them
August 11th, 2008 at 5:14 PMUsing
Mrs. M-ITT
I don’t speak Russian but it sounds like “STFU, or your next”
The Russian Military is not their only weapon. “You talked bad about us, listen to this, (Squeak Squeak) that was the sound of us turning off your oil and natural gas.” Which is another reason they want Georgia, the oil and gas pipeline. Russia is trying to become bigger than OPEC
August 11th, 2008 at 5:16 PMUsing
The South Ossetians were actually separatists since before anybody in Russia had even thought about sending in peacekeepers. Pretty much from the day that Georgia seceded and started proclaiming that “Georgia is for the Georgians.” Which is something that usually give ethnic minorities pause and, without the central government in Moscow to protect them anymore, undoubtedly became a major reason for them to decide leaving the Georgian club where they obviously weren’t wanted. So not much need for sneer quotes around “separatist”, really. The Russians didn’t invent them.
No they didn’t. Because once they were done pummeling Tskhinvali to dust and burying their citizens in the rubble under Grad barrages (that’s a modern version of the famed WWII Katyusha battery. If you’ve ever seen footage of one in action, you’ll know what I’m talking about. It makes “shock and awe” look like a love note) and had made it to what was left of the city, the Russians showed up. At that point, they really didn’t have much of a choice other than to tuck tail and run. Their sudden calls for ceasefire had precious little to do with love of peace and a whole lot to do with “oh shit, they struck BACK!!!”
Now the Russians, on the other hand, have clearly gone way too far. They’ve shut down the east-west railroad and, it is being reported, are toodling around in Georgia’s major seaport. THAT’S not a “peace-keeping mission”, THAT’S a full-scale military invasion.
Their alleged initial goals, which were reasonable enough considering their internationally mandated (including Georgia, by the way) peace-keeping mission inside of South Ossetia, had already been accomplished when the Georgians had been kicked out of South Ossetia. If they’d stopped there and said “OK, time to settle the rest through negotiations” and accepted the Georgian ceasefire proposal at that point, then they’d have done absolutely nothing that we DIDN’T do in Kosovo.
That crazy bastard Putin, however, didn’t stop there and THAT’S when he crossed the line.
At this point he’s guilty of pure imperialism and unwarranted aggression, as simple as that, and he needs to be put on notice that we’re neither blind nor dumb.
Yes. Because now it’s painfully obvious what Putin is really up to. That’s not the same as saying that I considered it completely unpossible that this might be the case two days ago, I know those KGB bastards, but I’m not in the business of condemning people for something that they might do before they’ve done it, unless I have pretty damn good evidence pointing in that direction. And sorry, “the Soviet Union were a bunch of swine, so therefore anything that Russia does, EVER, is automatically an unprovoked act of aggression” isn’t an argument. Not saying that you’re making that argument, but enough other people in the West were to make me nauseous. Particularly since those very same assholes are tripping over their own limp dicks tongue-bathing the ChiComs’ sweaty nutsacks 24/7, the ChiComs that are STILL the same ChiComs that they’ve always been.
I mean, really. Look back at the initial western media coverage before Putin overplayed his hand and decided to go Stalin on Georgia. From reading only that, you’d get the impression that Saakashvili’s army was sitting around in the countryside playing the balalaika and singing songs about their babuschki back home when, all of a sudden, the Russian Hordes unleashed Hell on their unsuspecting, innocent heads.
Blech!
I’ve merely been trying to tell both sides of the story, and the fucking Gruzian government weren’t innocent in all of this. As a matter of fact, what they got initially was what is normally referred to as “just desserts.”
NOW, on the other hand, the situation is quite different. I was always aware that Putin might be up to no good, and now he has proven it.
August 11th, 2008 at 5:31 PMUsing
Another stake in the “We are only defending our nationals” meme:
from our Current mouthpiece at the UN.
emphasis mine.
August 11th, 2008 at 5:37 PMUsing
Yes they did. An agreement between Ossetia and Georgia was reached in 1992, under which a peacekeeping force including Russians would be stationed in South Ossetia. This worked until 2004, when Georgia had built up their courage and started mumbling that the Russians that they themselves had agreed to the presence of weren’t “neutral” enough. More likely Georgia considered them a problem in case Georgia decided to roll in and take South Ossetia back by force. How right they were.
August 11th, 2008 at 5:37 PMUsing
I just heard Charles Krouthamer say we should admit Ukraine to NATO now. Also dissolve the G8 and not discuss the admission WTO with them.
Ted
August 11th, 2008 at 5:48 PMUsing
A very good idea. That way the Ukraine can have some NATO top cover if Russia should try to pull the same crap with them. Georgia is probably wishing they had waited until they had gotten NATO membership before pulling this stunt which might cost them their national sovereignty…
August 11th, 2008 at 6:23 PMUsing
LC Duncan,
I thought that was the point of NATO. “If you piss with one of us, You piss with all of us.”
Ted
August 11th, 2008 at 6:29 PMUsing
tvloh,
It is. And that is why we should let those former Warsaw Pact nations who no longer want to have the shadow of The Bear™ hanging over them as they cower alone into the fold. If Russia were to attack a NATO country, it’d be on, and Russia knows this. So give the Ukraine membership, let them give Putin and Co. the middle finger salute, and then stare them down and see who flinches first. I’d put my money on Putin and Co.
August 11th, 2008 at 7:42 PMUsing
That logical conclusion being what… the complete absorption of Georgian territory into the
Glorious Worker’s Paradise™Russian Federation?Ofcourse we’d honor our ally in Iraq’s request to return their forces to their homeland for its defense, post haste. And if that is siding in Georgia’s favor… well, tough titty. And then for Putin to call the U.S. his “partner” and that we’re “hindering” them? Who’s he honestly kidding?
And then there is this:
Now that is not exactly comforting. But perhaps we were distracted with other areas of the world….
August 11th, 2008 at 7:50 PMUsing
A deal brokered by Yeltzin, correct? A kindly suggestion from Mother Russia? Not a “neutral peacekeeping force” ratified by the U.N. utilizing soldiers for a foreign. And from what I’ve read, what the Georgians were a little miffed about was the fact that the Russian “peacekeepers” were arming the Abkhazians and allowing the aforementioned “seperatists” to shell the hell out of Georgian positions. You certainly don’t mind when the Israelis go on the warpath in Gaza for retaliation for rocket attacks, do you? Gaza is Israeli land that they’ve DONATED to the “Palestinians”, yet all those imbeciles can see is a place from which they can launch explosive rockets into the rest of the Jewish state. Oh yeah, aren’t there “peacekeepers” in the Gaza strip too? How about Lebanon?
Most news sites report the population of South Ossetia as 85% Georgian. Granted the 15% South Ossetian portion might WISH they were in North Ossetia (aka a postage-stamp sized portion of Mother Russia) but wishing doesn’t make it so… unless someone happens to give you a lot of guns and rockets and a small smattering of guidance like “Hey, why don’t you go and shoot some of those things off on Thursday?”
Also noted in 2004 was that the Georgians decided to cut down on illegal smuggling between Russia and South Ossetia. That pissed off a lot of folks too, I’m sure. But do pissed off folks have the RIGHT to make war on the country where they’re located?
Likewise, the Abkhazians are reported to be numbered around 50k, with the native Georgian population somewhere around 250k before the brokered agreement in 1992. Most left. Some where killed. While the “peacekeepers” watched.
Yes, in that part of the world, placing “peacekeeper” in italics is completely justified.
August 11th, 2008 at 8:08 PMUsing
The Russians are mad about us airlifting 3000 Georgian troops from Iraq? That ain’t even enough infantry to grease the treads on half their BMPs.
In the meantime, I’m pondering what the Turks are thinking of all this noise so close to their borders. Also, just for the sake of random curiosity, we wouldn’t happen to have any CVGs’ or other assorted naval assets out in the Med right now, would we? I’m not saying we should start shooting, but we are good at poking around and being a general nuisance. Might give the
August 11th, 2008 at 8:28 PMSovietsRussians some pause for a bit. Just long enough to consider a spot at the negotiating table.Using
The sneer quotes are there (not that I was sneering) because I highly doubt that, in this particular case, the separatists were the ones doing the firing. I suspect ACTUAL Russians did that bit of work this time.
I understand what a Katyusha rocket battery is… And according to more than one report I’ve read, the RUSSIANS also shelled the hell out of Tskhinvali! So the Russians literally rush in, face an inferior force with depleted munition loads, and promptly proceed to shell the crap out of the same town again? Shell a civilian center? What sort of strategy is that? Or, did the Russians come flying in, get ambushed, losing a General in charge of the 58th Motorized Division, then just decide to cut loose with everything, thus flattening the town of Tskhinvali. I doubt the Georgians have/had enough firepower to level the town. In 2005 they were listed as only having 4 WORKING SU-25 aircraft and a handful of helicopters! They haven’t had enough firepower to stop anything the Russians have done since. So… the Georgians either shot their wad in South Ossetia, or, as I suspect, they rolled in to light resistance only to find Russian heavies streaming down from the north as fast or faster than the Georgians were moving, and Tskhinvali just happened to be the location of the first running battle.
From the US Military as posted above:
Who told the Russians that the Georgians were moving and when? That’s just a little to coincidental for me. The Russians were also bleating INSTANTLY about Georgian atrocities. Truth or prepared lies?
This whole mess seems like one giant set-up to me.
August 11th, 2008 at 8:30 PMUsing
I’m just an old Leatherneck happily living out my years in the corncovered mid-west here in Wisconsin ( :em03: ) but this sounds alot like what started WWI and WWII to me. i.e. a local conflict that envoked mutual interlocking defense treaties. Nobody wanted to go to war but had to because of the treaties that had been signed years before. All it takes is one … can’t think of an appriate term :em72: :em95: :em38: :em98: to pull a trigger and set everyone off.
Way back when … NATO (essentialy a group of independant democracies) was a counter to the Soviet Union officially a group of independant communist states (in actuality they we’re about as independant as Texas is from Maine). With the breakup of the “Soviet Union” rather than increased stability we’re looking at building chaos in eastern Europe. The only aspect of what’s happening now that is not completely predictable is were the flashpoint would be, turns out it’s Georgia.
I’ll admit I’m old school, so I may not be as open to modern solutions as I should be but here’s what I’d do;
1) cut off official diplomatic relations with both Russia & Georgia
2) stage a dozen B2s over the Pacific and Atlantic with “special” weapons and refueling planes
3) with official fanfare redirect 2 Nimitz Carrier groups into the Med and another 2 into the Indian Ocean
4) have our 688i (improved Los Angeles Class hunter-killer) subs give a single ‘ping’ to the Russian Boomers they’re following (leave the Seawolves silent just in case)
5) pick-up the “hotline” and tell Commerade Putin BACK-OFF and accept the ceasefire or else.
I fully inderstand this position has it’s risks, but I think in Russian schools history is probably taught better than it is here in our public school system. I’ll bet Putin knows the US is the only country that has actually used an atomic weapon in anger, and we used them against an enemy that was already essentially beaten and we used TWO just to make the point.
In closing a couple cratered cities to end this quick would be better in the long run than an extended ‘conventional’ conflict that could easily escalate to involve an entire reagion of the world. aka Korea or Vietnam I suspect Russia remembers their attempt at Afganistan .. it took us how long? after they spent 10 years 10s of thousands of lives and eventually failed.
August 11th, 2008 at 8:37 PMUsing
I’d prefer a peacekeeping force consisting of neutral, third-party countries, but I fail to see what this has to do with the price of tea in China. Unless, of course, we are supposed to immediately declare all local agreements that haven’t been ratified by the glorious U.N. “invalid.” Besides, outside involvement was in place. The OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) maintained a mission there to keep an eye on things. No, I’m not particularly impressed with European peacekeeping efforts either, but if their presence doesn’t grant any sort of legitimacy to the deal, then I fail to see how planting a few companies of Kenyans, Mongolians and Montenegrans with blue helmets would do so.
Was the deal an ideal one? Heck if I know, but it was still a deal, a deal that remained in place without kvetching from 1992 to 2004.
As far as comparing Ossetians to paleosimians, I’m not sure I’d go that far. I could be wrong, but I don’t recall reports of Ossetians declaring that they intend to obliterate the state of Georgia and murder all of her inhabitants, nor do I recall reports of them going house to house, gunning down women and children with AK-47s. Of course, this doesn’t mean that the Georgians don’t have a right to fire back if fired upon, I’ve actually supported their right to do so in previous discussions, just as the Israelis have every right in the world to fight back when the paleosimians fire on them. But if the Israelis were to carpet bomb the Gaza Strip and kill a dozen foreign observers in the process, then I certainly would expect the governments of those foreign nationals to respond, shall we say?, harshly.
Finally, as far as firing back goes, the very same case can be made in Serbia’s favor regarding Kosovo, unless one subscribes to the notion that the Kosovar were an uniform, merry band of peaceful shepherds playing pan flutes in the meadows. The problem there wasn’t that the Serbs responded, it was the nature of their response. The same regarding Georgia’s response to the alleged fire from South Ossetia which, by the way, wasn’t a new thing. From either side. They’d been sniping at each other for years by then.
Then either those news sites need to stop sniffing glue or find better sources, or the Russians’ claims of ethnic cleansing must be true, because the only numbers I’ve been able to find, from before the start of hostilities, put the Ossetian part of the population of South Ossetia at about 2/3. I think that they might be confused and be referring to the population of Georgia as a whole which does, indeed, consist of about 85% Georgians.
Also, if 85% of South Ossetia’s population were Georgians, then I really am confused as to how South Ossetia, in a referendum monitored by no less than 34 foreign nations, managed to find 99% of the voters in favor of secession from Georgia. Particularly with a 95% turnout.
The Abkhazians are a different issue, and Russia’s expansion of the conflict into Abkhazia is further proof that Putin has overplayed his hand and that his original excuse for his response is now meaningless.
August 11th, 2008 at 8:42 PMUsing
That is possible. Hard to prove, of course, but given developments during the last 24 hours that have largely rendered Putin’s original justifications meaningless, I’m not about to discard that possibility. Alright then.
That one I haven’t heard, but that would certainly put a different light on things. Regarding the Georgians’ ability to pulverize Tshkinvali, it really doesn’t take very many Grad batteries to accomplish that in a hurry. They’re not known for accuracy, but they sure as Hades are known for effect.
Everything is possible at this point, since both sides are churning out propaganda faster than the ink can dry on the paper it’s printed on.
August 11th, 2008 at 8:48 PMUsing
Damn straight, Duncan. Now, if the Russians had been in any way intending to only do what they claimed to be doing last Friday and they were involved in a long and bloody battle inside of South Ossetia, then I might concede that he had a fraction of a point.
But since every word he uttered on Friday has now been proven to be a lie and the Georgians, at this point, are merely doing all they can to defend whatever remains of their undisputed territory, I’d say that a hearty “Fuck You!” in Putin’s general direction would be in order.
He has absolutely no credibility and standing at this point.
August 11th, 2008 at 8:53 PMUsing
If I’m not mistaken, I do believe we have a couple of flat tops over that direction trying to make Iran nervous.
August 11th, 2008 at 9:35 PMUsing
I wish now I’d bookmarked that report. Sire, I should be flogged for failing my duty. I also hate unsubstantiated “facts”. I want to say it was in a Fox News report from the field posted earlier today… It was NOT a Reuters or AP report, that’s for certain.
The Blog posted at the start of this thread states though that it was Georgia’s crack, US-trained troops which stormed South Ossetia, yet were only able to hold the capital there for three hours in the face of the Russian onslaught. Just how much force did the Russians deploy at Tshkinvali that they ran off one-fifth of Georgia’s forces. The map I looked at show’s 2/3rds of South Ossetia had to be crossed to reach Tshkinvali, not counting how far the Russians had to travel within Russion from their bowers.
Again I say, this was no mistake… Someone from the South Ossetia side of the border shelled the hell out of a known post, causing enough fatalities that the Georgian President had to respond. This is just what Putin wanted. So far, anyway.
It really does appear that he’s got the Georgians by the short hairs. Did anyone else think President Bush looked REALLY PISSED today when he spoke? He had that look in his eye of a man ABOUT TO DO SOMETHING after learning he’d been played for a dupe by Putin in person in China.
I personally vote for J-SOWS over Russian tanks before they reach the Georgian capitol and it’s convoluted terrain. All those pretty tanks lined up on the main road? Tempting, and within reach of the planes in Turkey…
August 11th, 2008 at 10:12 PMUsing
No, Misha, I wasn’t actually making that argument, and thank you for noticing. I am saying, however, that lately anything Vladimir Putin does makes me suspicious, even before Russia’s invasion of Georgia. My suspicion is based on, for example, Putin’s arming of Saddam before Operation Iraqi Freedom, and his helping Saddam circumvent UN sanctions (and, if certain reports are correct, helping Saddam smuggle much of his WMDs and related research to Syria before the war).
And Putin’s arming of Iran, for that matter, including Russian assistance with Iran’s nuclear program. And blocking any attempt in the UN to impose sanctions on Iran for its nuclear program or its support of Islamic extremism.
And Putin’s efforts to create a Sino-Russian alliance to confront the United States.
And Putin’s attempt to poison the pro-Western president of Ukraine a few years ago (actually, while his victim was still campaigning for the office).
And Putin’s efforts to stamp out any sort of true democracy in Russia and any sort of domestic Russian political opposition to his rule, to include the imprisonment and even murder of opposition lawmakers and journalists.
Give John McCain credit for this much: in commenting on a certain remark President Bush the younger made about Putin, back in his first term, McCain remarked that when he looked into Putin’s eyes all he saw was “KGB.”
Which is pretty much the same impression I’ve been getting from the svoloch’ lately, too…
August 11th, 2008 at 10:40 PMUsing
I believe that the Theodore Roosevelt battlegroup is transiting the Med right now. It was doing an ORSE off the East coast a week ago. Another flattop with escort is on the way as well, the main problem is that the Navy has to keep riding herd on a few nations coughIRANcough that would dearly love to cause trouble if we pulled the current babysitters. The Black Sea fleet is pretty much rust and garbage, a couple cruisers in poor condition, some 40 year old DD’s and one Kilo that may be functional. It isn’t a threat to the TR, but there is a limit to what the TR can do once it gets there as well.
We can make Russia pay for taking Georgia. I don’t see how we can stop it from happening, though.
August 12th, 2008 at 12:34 AMUsing
Breaking News >> Senior Al Qaeda Commander Abu Saeed Al-Masri Reportedly Killed in Pakistan not too far away……
August 12th, 2008 at 12:35 AMUsing
tweell-
There are only three ways in and out of Georgia. If the Roosevelt can control the air and destroy the Roksky tunnel, the Russians would be trapped like rats. They become easy pickings for A-10’s based in Turkey. A decisive defense of our friends could make the Iranians see the light as the Israelis would see this as a perfect opportunity.
This isn’t The Bears first foray into the politics of oil. Last year they laid claim to the North Pole. We just got around to sending a Coast Guard cutter up there.
If we can’t help the Georgians, can we at least trade them for Cuba?
August 12th, 2008 at 6:55 AMUsing
There’s a deeper problem for us in this whole mess. We don’t have many real allies left in the world. Sure, many nations make mouth movements of support and friendship, but most are full of elephant dung. Georgia actually sent troops on our behalf — I don’t claim this justifies their recent stupidity, but it puts us in a bad position.
Any other nations out there who might be willing to befriend us openly would now hesitate to do so. If we don’t fix the situation somehow, we’ll look like a bunch of ball-less twats who don’t give two shits about our allies (regardless of their level of stupidity). I don’t like the precedence that sets. Of course getting directly involved could lead to us getting drawn into a shooting war. Catch-22. I’m actually somewhat pissed at Georgia for putting us in this position.
Either way Comrade Putin wins. He can either point to us as evil aggressors defending an aggressive country (which he’s already claiming just for us sending Georgian troops home), or let the world paint us as cowards who don’t care about our allies, which I’m sure the US-hating media would love to do. I honestly don’t know what the solution is at this point, if Russia doesn’t accept a cease-fire.
August 12th, 2008 at 9:18 AMUsing
Nevermind, it appears (I hope) that Russia has accepted the cease-fire. Hopefully at our behest :p.
August 12th, 2008 at 9:48 AMUsing
Sort of OT:
August 13th, 2008 at 12:12 AMI have three friends in Georgia, and I heard from one of them today. He’s fine, but I’m a little concerned about the other two. I’d appreciate some extra prayers for George Ingorokva and Ika (I’m not sure what his last name is). As far as I know, they are in Tbilisi, but I am still concerned for their safety. Thanks.
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