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The Associated (with terrorists) Press puts out a new poll that is a statistical tie, 44-42. That is to say, they don’t so much “put it out” there, since you have to do a fair amount of digging to get an actual look at, you know, the poll.
Which is understandable since the Associated (with terrorists) Press had reached the stunning conclusion, prior to sampling, that American voters are Democrat more than Republican by, er, 13 percentage points. No wonder they don’t want people sniffing around in the raw data.
People knowing that the hugest lead the Democrats have ever held in modern history was about 4 or 5 percentage points might actually start asking uncomfortable questions about the usefulness of the results.
Of course, Hot Air’s AllahEeyorepundit, noticing that there might be a silver lining here, immediately finds a dark cloud to comfort himself with.
Hey, he’s doing us a service here. We don’t want to become complacent, now do we?
Still, I wish that he and the other Eeyores on the right would take this “we’re doomed” narrative and send it to the Democrats because, quite frankly, they need to be convinced. The Obama campaign, the DNC, MorOn.org etc. are driving us batty with the flood of emails they spam all over our inbox every day, telling us that McCain might WIN and that we all need to REALLY put in an effort to save the Obamessiah.
If only they were half as convinced that Obambi was going to win as the pundits on the right, then perhaps the flood might abate somewhat.
Thatisall.
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OBAMA: LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THE GOP ARE OUT TO GET ME!! DA MAN IS KEEPING ME DOWN !!
Sorry but that was too good to pass up .. :em95:
October 17th, 2008 at 5:33 PMUsing
Let me direct your attention to a comment I made back on September 7th:
The only poll that counts is the one they count on Novemeber 4th, don’t believe any other. They are, just to remind you, in the tank for Obama.
October 17th, 2008 at 5:45 PMUsing
Hmmm….
Well, Ovomit DID come out and say to people not to get complacent:
http://www.breitbart....._article=1
Perhaps this is why the polls are suddenly balancing out: so as to motivate the libs into action on November 4th.
October 17th, 2008 at 6:09 PMUsing
News like this might drive me to Eeyore Rehab.
October 17th, 2008 at 6:18 PMUsing
Interesting, but the polls are, for the most part, queer as a football bat, right now.
Jump into the polls themselves. I have been looking at and following closely, the daily tracking polls for about 12 months now, and have watched closely for the last 4 elections. Few things I’ve seen:
1) If ANY poll tells you there is more than a 6 point gap, one way or the other, they are full of shit. Either intentionally lying, or they are incompetent. There are no other explainations.
2) Gallup is not just taking two bites at the apple, they are taking FOUR. They have their own, and their poll they do with USA today, two apeice, is crap. Furthermore, the “traditional” method has worked for the last three elections (that is, the results are within the margin of error or right). The “expanded” version is based on hoping that the lowest turn out group, that is 18 - 25 year olds, turn out in the numbers the Obamabots say they will. Historuically, they are too busy smokin’ dope and getting laid to vote.
3) Ignore Hotline / HD. They have been overly democrat by 6 - 10 points, since Reagan was President. Ignore it always. Same for CBS / NY Slimes, by 5 - 12.
4) Ignore “RV” or Registered Voter polls. Anyone not giving “Likely Voters” at this stage is a waste of your time to read.
5) After you narrow this, look at the internals of the individual poll. Specifically, look at the “weighting” of the poll; that is, the internal adjustments made to the polls to reflect the likely turnout of the voters. Historically, the turnout (weighting) numbers since Nixon (that is, self identified on the exit polls “I’m a Registered Independent, and I voted for Bush!”) have been 38 - 39 percent Democrat, 33 - 35 percent Republican, and the rest “independent” or other. Anything outside these tight perameters should be adjusted to these figures.
Following 1 - 4 above, and based on winnowing out the number of the RCP rolling average, I make it about 5 points for the last few days (Oct 12 - 16). NOTE: This only includes data for one day after the last debate.
Now, go to # 5. After you adjust the weighting to the historical numbers (*see note) this is a one - two point race, within the margin of error. I think the ObamaBots are running scared, hence the reaction to “Joe the Plumber” and bitching about Medicade today in Roanoak, VA.
* NOTE. Just as information, some of the polls are widly off on their weighting numbers. Fer instance, CBS got bustid out a few days ago with a poll showing the Obaminable one showing 45 % Democrat, 27 % Republican. That’s only one example, but you get the idea. Someone is intentionally massaging the numbers, either to discourage people likely to vote Palin / Whatshisname (TM), or to encourage The Chozun Won’s bots and donation machine.
IT AIN’T OVER ‘TIL THE FAT LADY SINGS, FOLKS.
Or as Lady Maggie said, “Don’t go all wobbly, now, George!”
October 17th, 2008 at 6:21 PMUsing
Eeyore or no, I never pay attention to polls. There is no such thing as an objective poll, so there is no such thing as an accurate measurement of potential voting. This is especially true since the MSM has been in the pocket of the Libs since FDR, and therefore all polls are skewed.
Other polls which come from “independent” sources are skewed to the Right, so they are not dependable either.
Add to this the fickleness of John Q. Public from one news cycle to the next, and you have a recipe for pulling your hair out needlessly.
Bottom line: any news source, whether Left or Right, has an axe to grind and is therefore open to criticism. As my grandfather used to say, “Figures don’t lie, but all liars can figure.”
My low opinion of Gentleman Johnny’s chances are NOT based upon MSM imput or polling “data”: they are based upon observing McWane’s performance and behavior on the campaign trail. Personally, I would NOT want to be next to Mac at the shooting range; his shots go everywhere but on target—most often into his own feet.
ROTT IN HELL!!!!!!!!!!!!
October 17th, 2008 at 7:19 PMUsing
I have been wondering throughout the day if we are not on the “cuspt” of a societal shift, (analagous to the shift in the sixties). Not as in hippies and love in kinda shit.. but just a “shift”. And once I wondered that, I wondered if history had any impact on this thought. And I got to thinking… roughly 40 yrs ago we expierenced a shift, 40 yrs before that we had the Greatest Gen, 40 yrs before that we had the Victorians, ……. of course I understand that I am very roughly projecting (like the polls I guess), (just covered my ass for going off topic :em95: )
Any thoughts….. or do I need to adjust my meds again?
October 17th, 2008 at 7:35 PMUsing
You might have something there Troy. But it’s probably not a bad idea to adjust your meds anyway. :em95:
October 18th, 2008 at 3:06 AMUsing
The AP has now changed the poll.
Go back and relaunch the PDF from their site:
http://news.yahoo.co.....ulpYVsnwcF
they have now added to the question ‘if the election were today, who would you vote for” to the 8th wave a list of ‘likely voters’ that favors Obama 49-44.
That’s not all.
Comparing waves 1-8, Dem’s outnumbered the Republicans 7% (not that bad, only off by 3%), 9%, 7% again, 9%, then in the 5th wave it jumps to 11%, 12%, 12%, 13%.
Waves 5-8 sampled Dem’s over Republicans at THREE TIMES the national average.
How much of an advantage did this give Obama in the polls?
Not surprisingly, the AP only shows the results of waves 5-8 for the question who would you vote for if the election was today - the 4 waves where the Dems in the sample are over-represented by 11% or more.
Wave 5 result (11% Dem -oversampled by 7%) - 2 point lead for Obama
Wave 6 result (12% Dem - oversampled by 8%) - 4 point lead for Obama
Wave 7 result (12% Dem - oversampled by 8%) - 2 point lead for McCain
Wave 8 result (13% Dem - oversampled by 9%) - 2 point lead for Obama
Notice over the 10 day period the pollsters OBVIOUSLY weren’t getting the results they wanted so they kept ENLARGING the oversampling of the Democrats until it went into double digits, finally reaching 13%, a laughable amount.
And the result? At 8% oversampling of Dems in wave 7, MCCAIN CAME OUT WITH A 2 POINT LEAD. LOL.
So they try AGAIN. They do another wave, wave 8 and oversample by 9% this time - and get a 2 point Obama lead.
And then they try to BURY the results in their story, only Rush calls them on it on their show.
So now - with no notes or any hint, they drop a ‘likely voters’ section into it, editing their own poll with out comment and adding a result that favors Obama by 5 points, 49-44.
Pathetic.
October 18th, 2008 at 8:29 AMUsing